Wednesday, July 23, 2008

The projections...

The next election will be fought over 128 seats, distributed by religion and sects (64 Christians and 64 Muslims, and then further divided by sect like sunni, shiite, druze and Marnoite, Orthodox, ...)

The 128 seats are disributed between six governorates (Mohafaza): Beirut, Mount Lebanon, North Lebanon, the BEkaa, South Lebanon and Nabatieh. The electoral district will be drawn on the Caza level (a sub division of the Mohafazat) with three exception due to the law used (the 1960 electoral law)

I will start my projection with each Mohafazat, dealing at this stage with the guarantied results (there are at least 50 or 60 seats on which there will be no electoral context, or a minimal one because of the overwhelming majorities present in these districts)

for easier access and simpler layout I will post each Mohafazat in a different post and link them here and on the side bar, updating them as I refine my projections.

First post!

During the next few months I will try to keep an ongoing, gradually refined electoral projection, on my blog.

My methodology will be as follow: I will collect as many projection and polls as I can find in the local and international press, and use the 2005 and 2007 by election results to try and form a projection. (For those interested you can view my earlier attempt at projecting the results of the 2007 by elections here and here)